In the 2019 election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, polled a large chunk of votes from the 17 Southern states even though he hails from the Northern part of the country. Some analysts are of the view that had Atiku contested under a different party, he may not have polled anything close to the 11,262,978 votes he got in the last election.
In the buildup to the 2023 elections, there are emerging threats to Atiku’s votes in the South. The emergence of his former running mate, Peter Obi, as the Labour Party presidential candidate; the dusts raised by Governor of Rivers state, Nyesom Wike; the agitation by the Southern bloc of the party for more equitable zoning arrangement; and the unpopular choice of Governor of Delta state, Ifeanyi Okowa, as running mate; meant the former Vice President may struggle this time with Southern votes.
The lifelong presidential contestant polled 317 votes to pick the party’s ticket ahead of his closest rival, Wike, who had 237 votes. Others like Bukola Saraki had 70 votes; Udom Emmanuel – 38 votes; Bala Mohammed – 20; Anyim Pius Anyim – 14 and Sam Ohuabunwa – 1. Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, withdrew and backed Atiku during the primaries.
Since his emergence as PDP presidential candidate, Atiku has had to deal with his party’s fervent crisis. Things were not made easier with the departure of his former allies, including former Governor of Anambra State and 2019 running mate, Obi, from the party on the eve of the party primary. Obi will later emerge as the Labour Party presidential candidate.
Obi’s impact
Obi has huge support from the South-East, a region the PDP have received bloc votes since 1999. Some analysts have noted that Obi’s emergence may eventually clip Atiku’s wings in the South-East if he manages to remain on the ballot. This is because Obi seems to be largely supported by those who Atiku would have banked on to get the job done.
Senator Dayo Adeyeye says division in the PDP with the emergence of Obi has done a colossal damage to the chances of its candidate in the 2023 presidential poll. This view is strongly countered by those who consider Obi’s chances as marginal. Professor Ebenezer Obadare captures this perfectly when he wrote: “Seen from this vantage point, a candidate like Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State who exited the race (and the PDP) days before the party presidential primaries to pitch his tent with the Labour Party, stood no chance at all. Not only does Obi lack a nationwide political constituency, but he also failed to earn the trust of a political establishment that prefers a candidate of northern extraction, or, alternatively, a candidate who can deliver on the aforementioned northern agenda. Support for Obi would have made perfect sense if, under any circumstance, power had to rotate to the south, but Jonathan’s realpolitik, as previously mentioned, appears to have changed that. Tellingly, Obi left the PDP without endorsing any candidate, and it remains to be seen whether he can tangibly affect the race from the standpoint of a Labour Party that, all told, remains marginal.”
To strengthen the position of those who believe Obi’s impact will shape the campaign, an online poll was conducted earlier this month. The result showed Obi was in a significant lead with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today. Obi’s supporters have used the poll as evidence that the 2023 presidential election may shift away from the traditional two-horse race. Atiku’s spokesperson, Daniel Bwala, described the result of the poll as a “concocted trash.”
Wike’s “nuisance”
One of the immediate headaches Atiku had to deal with immediately after the primary was the “nuisance” caused by Wike.
Wike led Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State to demand the resignation of Senator Iyorchia Ayu as National Chairman as a condition for their support for Atiku. They placed their argument on the pre-primary consensus that should a Northerner emerge as presidential candidate of the party, Ayu will have to resign. Wike’s camp noted the polarizing attitude of Ayu in the PDP. They accused the former Senate President of being more of a dividing force and unfit to hold office as chairman.
Some party chieftains accused Wike of crying wolf. The party chiefs seem to have grown tired of his nuisance. This was, however, vehemently denied by Ohuabunwa, a presidential aspirant, who said Wike of Rivers State is only seeking justice and equity, and not trying to destabilize the party. He said “Wike is not crying wolves. He is demanding justice. He is demanding equity. And that is right for him to do.”
Rather than acceding to Wike’s request for Ayu to resign, Atiku’s camp was all too ready to sacrifice Senator Walid Jibrin to resign as chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT) to appease the governor.
The Atiku camp seems to be prepared for Wike’s worst. Last week, the party released a 326-member Presidential Campaign Council (PCC). Appointed to lead the PCC was Wike’s bitter foe, the Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, as Director General and an ally, Makinde, who was named the Council’s Vice Chairman South. Wike was announced as a member of the Council just for his status as Governor.
The appointment of Tambuwal, a Northerner as campaign Director-General again raised the question of whether Atiku was concerned about Wike’s demands.
Uninspiring Okowa
It was widely speculated that Wike will emerge as Atiku’s running mate after the conclusion of the primary. Even the Ortom-led committee set up by the PDP to select a running mate claimed that Wike came out tops as favorite choice for Atiku. Atiku, however, chose the Delta state Governor, Okowa.
Almost immediately after his announcement as Atiku’s running mate, there was widespread condemnation of the choice of Okowa. The Southern and Middle Belt Leaders’ Forum (SMBLF) described Okowa as an unfortunate choice. Okowa’s critics say his choice showed his duplicity having previously hosted the meeting of the 17 Southern Governors in Asaba, where it was agreed that the region should produce the next president.
Okowa’s admirers noted his non-combative style and gentle nature as factors that will work for him as Vice President. Okowa, they said, has the political profile as a former local government chairman, a former state commissioner, a former secretary to state government, a senator, and now, and a two-term governor. His critics also point to this that he has not used his profile enough to counter his colleague, Wike. His silence on national issues and inability to build a broad network puts him as a “local champion”.
If Atiku cannot rely on his Southern lieutenants to get out the votes, his 2023 presidential ambition may be in jeopardy. Why should Atiku be struggling with Southern votes at this time?