Many observers have hoped that the conclusion of the presidential primary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in May 2022 meant the opposition was ready for the tough challenge of unseating the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from power. That was, however, not to be as the party appears to have more battles to fight, this time not with its bitter rival, APC, but with its own key members.
The presidential primary threw up more issues than even the party hierarchy envisaged. The party’s Southern Governors led by Nyesom Wike, the Governor of Rivers State who also contested the party’s ticket with its current holder, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, have led the fair representation in the party.
As soon as Atiku won the party’s ticket, he immediately engaged in reconciliation efforts which saw him meet the aggrieved parties. On one of those occasions, he met with Wike in London about two weeks ago to iron out their differences.
Wike and other Southern Governors elected under the party’s platform have consistently demanded more equitable zoning in the party’s position which is currently in favour of the Northern caucus.
The Southern Governors Forum (SGF) at its meeting in Lagos in 2021 demanded among other things that it remains committed “to the politics of equity, fairness and unanimously agrees that the presidency of Nigeria be rotated between Southern and Northern Nigeria and resolved that the next president of Nigeria should emerge from the Southern Region.” The PDP Governors from the region also said it would stand by the resolution of the Forum.
Many analysts widely predicted that the PDP will zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the South once Senator Iyorchia Ayu from Benue state emerged as its National Chairman in 2021. In fact, many Southern Governors, including Wike, supported the emergence of Ayu in the hope of technically knocking Atiku out of the presidential race since there is the unwritten arrangement that both the party’s National Chairman and presidential candidate cannot come from the same region.
Atiku, Betrayal, and the zoning question
After the emergence of Atiku as the presidential candidate, Wike’s camp comprising Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State demanded the resignation of the Ayu as National Chairman to be replaced by a Southerner as a precondition to negotiations.
The Wike’s camp stated that one of the consensuses reached before the emergence of Ayu was that the lopsided leadership of the party would be corrected before the beginning of campaigns. Wike’s camp noted the polarizing attitude of Ayu in the PDP. They accused the former Senate President of being more of dividing force and unfit to hold office as chairman.
Governor Wike said his actions and demands are to correct the lopsided leadership in the party’s structure. The Presidential candidate, National Chairman, Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman, and PDP Governors’ Forum Chairman are all from the North. This is something Governor Wike’s camp described as unacceptable.
To Wike’s camp’s surprise, Atiku’s camp did not keep their promise of effecting the necessary changes after their meeting in London. More worrying for Wike is the promise of Ayu to step down if a fellow Northerner emerges as presidential candidate which was not kept.
Verbal exchanges, low blows
After weeks of inertia from Atiku’s camp and continuous tirades of Governor Wike against the PDP, the former began showing signs of doing something about the latter’s demands. Considering the fact that PDP expects the large chunk of its votes to come from the South and Wike’s constant attacks about PDP being anti-South party seem not helping the party’s cause.
The media also reported the direct exchanges between Wike and Ayu. Ayu was widely reported for calling Wike and his supporters “children” for demanding his resignation to which Wike said it was the children who made him party chairman and wants him removed.
Wike said “Somebody said those of you who said the right thing must be done are boys; they are children. You can imagine what power can do. You can imagine how ingratitude…how people can be ingrates.” This was after Ayu had said “When we started the PDP, we did not know those boys, they are children, and they don’t know why we founded the party. We will not agree with one person to come and destroy our party.”
Emissaries, Consensus-Building
While the verbal exchanges between Wike and Ayu were ongoing, Atiku sent emissaries to appease Wike to make him see the futility of removing Ayu and replacing him with a Southerner. They admonished Wike to see the bigger picture – PDP winning the 2023 presidential election. According to the Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Mr Ndudi Elumelu, “We must learn to forgive one another. All of us cannot be chairman, presidential candidate. But together we can lead. If only we can be patient, we can lead.”
Other initiatives at change consensus include those taken by Babangida Aliyu, former governor of Niger State and former Information Minister, Jerry Gana, calling for peace in the party as well as PDP governorship candidates visiting Mr Wike for the same purpose all to no avail.
Middle ground?
In what looked like both factions meeting a middle ground, Senator Walid Jibrin from Nasarawa state resigned his position as the chairman of the party’s BoT on Thursday. The party announced his replacement with former Senate President, Adolpus Wabara from Abia state. The party’s Governor Forum chairman, Aminu Tambuwal from Sokoto state also resigned to be replaced by Makinde from Oyo state. The decisions preceded the party’s 97th National Executive Council (NEC) meeting the same day.
Both decisions were taken but Wike’s camp seems uninterested. They insisted on Ayu’s resignation. The same day, NEC, in a unanimous voice vote, passed a vote of confidence in Mr Ayu and commended him and the National Working Committee (NEC) for their hard work and resilience in what appeared to spite Wike’s group. Wike later said NEC’s vote of confidence cannot save Ayu.
Observers wondered why, with Senator Jibrin’s resignation and the NEC’s vote of confidence on Senator Ayu what does Governor Wike stands to gain from Ayu’s resignation? Is it as a result of not keeping promises to resign? Why is it difficult to honour an agreement freely reached? What explains Atiku’s inertia in all these?
Murky road to 2023
Analysts are unanimous in their submissions that the high-stake 2023 election is important for the survival of PDP. The biggest challenge the party currently faces is not its rival, APC, but bringing the warring factions within its fold to reach a truce. A divided PDP would be no match for its rival who has 22 state governors under its fold. Will appeasing Wike’s camp be the one-and-for-all solution to the crisis facing the party?