In the weeks leading up to Nigeria’s seventh straight general election, which will be the longest run in the country’s electoral history, some unsettling trends are starting to show. This is due to pundits’ predictions that the 2023 elections will feature some of the most fiercely contested and divisive voting in the last ten years.
Political gladiators may wind up using the elections as a stage for “an intensifying regional competition,” according to analyst Matthew Ozah. This article examines some potential alarming indications that could have an impact on the elections as the campaigns enter their most critical weeks.
- Attacks on critical electoral infrastructure
Without a doubt, one of the most serious dangers to the 2023 elections is the recent rise in ongoing attacks on essential electoral infrastructure across the country. Since 2019, there have been more than 50 attacks across 15 states, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Though the Commission has consistently stated that the attacks on its infrastructure will not disrupt the conduct of the polls, not many Nigerians have taken it seriously.
Aside from attacks on INEC’s physical offices, the Commission has also received reports of political figures trying to rig elections by purchasing Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and other technological components of the election are now even more in the crosshairs of voters’ concerns that desperate politicians will fund cyberattacks against them.
Experts in cyber security allayed these concerns in interviews with QUEST TIMES. ICT expert Hanniel Jafarau stated that there are systems that can be attacked and some that cannot. According to him, there is no system that cannot be hacked.
He acknowledged there might still be some “loopholes in the BVAS and INEC should take a look at this,” he continued.
“I trust technology,” says Michael Peter, another cyber security specialist. He said “Since the system is supported by technical personnel, credibility is guaranteed. According to post-election legal cases, BVAS has been employed in the elections in the Nigerian states of Ekiti, Anambra, Delta, and Osun.”
This was further supported by the fact that on January 27 INEC said that some French hackers had made repeated attempts to get into the commission’s computer systems in advance of the general elections in 2023.
Many Nigerians continue to express their concerns about the primary political players’ ability to influence the 2023 elections despite these apparent assurances.
- Widening voter polarisation
There is a new dilemma of growing voter polarization in the nation despite the historic enactment of the 2022 Electoral Act, which legalized the deployment of technology for elections.
Voter polarization is becoming more of a problem, as evidenced by the most recent off-cycle governor elections in Anambra, Ekiti, and Osun states.
Party identity, religion, and ethnicity are important polarizing variables in Nigerian elections, according to a 2019 study by University of Nigeria scholar Cletus Nwankwo. The study found that voters’ party affiliations frequently ” correlate with religion, ethnicity, and the membership or non-membership of prominent political elites and leaders.”
These polarizing tendencies appear to have been exacerbated by the emergence of smaller parties and their growing ambition to end Nigeria’s traditional two-party, two-horse contest. A significant third-party effect on the results of the most recent governorship elections in Ekiti and Anambra states was evident. According to some commentators, the outcomes of the elections in 2023 may depend entirely on how the third parties and their followers behave. The growth of third parties gives the incumbents a modest advantage over the opposition, as evidenced by the majority of the most recent off-cycle elections. There is also a polarising tendency ahead of the 2023 elections along demographic and geopolitical lines in Nigeria. There is also a polarizing tendency along demographic and geopolitical dimensions ahead of the 2023 elections.
- Rising socio-economic discontents
As the election date approaches, analysts concur that the nation’s rising socioeconomic turmoil may determine or influence election results. Given the growing participation of young people in elections, rising socioeconomic uncertainty in the country may play a big role in how young people will vote.
According to the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHDI), Nigeria currently has urban and rural poverty rates of 47% and 59.5%, respectively. With the prevalence of acute poverty in the country, major parties find it easy to weaponize poverty and unemployment with corruption in an environment where many individuals are willing to exchange their vote for immediate gratification.
Perennial concerns such as Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) strikes, inflation, debt profile, unemployment, and so on will undoubtedly hurt incumbents in the 2023 elections.
- Poorvoter turnout
The prospect of poor voter turnout is one of the most concerning signals ahead of the 2023 elections. This comes against the backdrop of a 34.75 percent turnout in the 2019 presidential election, indicating a persistent decline since 2007.
Disturbingly, the average voter turnout in the most recent off-cycle governorship elections in Anambra, Osun, and Ekiti states was 31.1%, which is around three percentage points lower than the average for the 2019 presidential election.
Some analysts believe that the adoption of technology in Nigerian elections since 2015 has made manipulation difficult, resulting in low turnouts; nevertheless, others believe the contrary to be true.
Studies that show how technology might influence election outcomes have provided a strong empirical basis. A 2020 study on the reasons that contributed to poor voter turnout in the 2019 elections discovered that, despite increased use of technology, candidate popularity remained one of the most important predictors of voter turnout. The study indicated that “candidate’s tribe, candidate’s running mate’s tribe, voters sharing the same views with the candidate, support for the candidate’s political party, and trust in the candidate’s abilities” are important markers of voter turnout.
The emphasis on the use of technology for the 2023 elections will be tested in February to see if it can be used to enhance voter turnout among young people during the polls.
- Parties’ dispositions
The Nigerian electoral process is not complete without political parties. Observers are keeping a close eye on the attitudes of the two major parties, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), approaching the 2023 elections. This is not to suggest that organizations like the Labour Party (LP), the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), and others do not pose a challenge.
Till Weber, a professor of comparative politics at the City University of New York, observed in a 2021 study on the influence of party dispositions on voters that, more frequently than not, individuals judge candidates or topics during elections through the lenses of those they dislike, leading them to “support parties that are more radical than standard proximity considerations would suggest.” This kind of blind allegiance, particularly in Nigeria, is often described as a “classic tragedy” by Weber in his study.
The attitude of political parties during election cycles in Nigeria’s party system can shape voter orientations. With some political parties beginning to radicalize their members this election cycle through hate speeches and hate-filled campaign themes, the likelihood of post-election violence could increase.
Despite the presidential candidates from the 18 political parties signing the Peace Accord, which binds them to a peaceful campaign leading up to the 2023 general elections, the campaigns have been far from peaceful. There have been reports of clashes between political supporters during rallies, as well as an increase in violent attacks on candidates’ support facilities by perceived political opponents, and the unrestrained use of hate-filled messaging, tribal slurs, and war-like vocabulary. Some commentators have speculated that the escalating tensions across the country ahead of the elections may be another worrisome indication for the country’s budding democracy.