Established by social critic and leading banker Atedo Peterside, ANAP Foundation is a non-profit organisation that is committed to promoting good governance.
The foundation, in its recent poll released Thursday, September 15, said Peter Obi of Labour Party was in a strong lead over Bola Tinubu of the ruling APC and Atiku Abubakar of PDP, a development that has stirred controversies among the opposition.
In this article, Quest Times analyses five (5) times ANAP foundation correctly predicted election results in Nigeria:
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2011
ANAP foundation poll in 2011 put Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP ahead of his top contenders.
The opinion poll was carried out from February 11th – February 28th, 2011 with a representative random sample of Nigerians drawn from Nigeria’s six major geo-political zones and reflecting the rural-urban split in population.
“46% of Nigerians were aware that Ibrahim Shekarau is running for president. 48% of respondents were aware that Nuhu Ribadu is running for president.
“73% of Nigerians were aware that Muhammed Buhari is running for president. 93% of respondents were aware that Goodluck Jonathan is running for president.
“For all other candidates, less than 20% of Nigerians knew that they were running for president. Majority (85%) of Nigerians feel very strongly about their choice for the presidential position.
“Most (53%) of the respondents think that Goodluck Jonathan will win the April presidential position. Most (68%) approve of Goodluck Jonathan’s performance as president,” the foundation revealed.
Verdict
Jonathan went on to win that election as the survey suggested.
2015
ANAP foundation also tipped APC candidate Muhammadu Buhari to win the 2015 presidential election.
In a statement issued on February 16, 2015, to announce the results of the polls, the foundation said, “from the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2015 presidential elections, the figures put General Muhammadu Buhari in a slight lead (32 percent) over President Goodluck Jonathan (30 percent); indicating a 2 percentage points lead. Interestingly, both candidates enjoy decent support across gender and age groups.
“Some key highlights to note – on average, Buhari enjoys groundswell support in the North-West and North-East geo-political zones; while Jonathan remains the beautiful bride of the South-South and South-East zones.
According to the statement, “the high PVC collection rates in the North-West and North-East Zones (above 80% in several states) appear to have given Buhari the slight advantage over the incumbent President Jonathan as much lower PVC collection rates of below 60% have been recorded in several states in the South-East and South-South zones (Jonathan’s area of strength) at the time of our survey.”
Verdict
Opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari won the 2015 presidential election by more than 2.5 million votes. Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat on 31 March, before the results from all 36 states had been announced. The election marked the first time an incumbent president had lost re-election in Nigeria.
2019
In its subsequent prediction, ANAP foundation released the results of a poll conducted for the 2019 presidential election. The foundation said Buhari of the APC was in the lead against the main opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar.
According to a statement issued on the poll results by ANAP foundation, “from the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Presidential elections, the figures put President Muhammadu Buhari in the lead (with roughly one-third of the votes) over Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (with approximately one-quarter of the votes). Interestingly, both candidates enjoy decent support across gender and age groups.
“Atiku also has a better spread across all six geopolitical zones. Buhari falls significantly short of 25% in the South East Zone and is also in danger of falling short of 25% in the South-South Zone.
“Buhari’s lead is sizeable but not unassailable because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in the South East Zone, where he is weakest. Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is considerable disparity in turnout figures across the geopolitical zones. Buhari was always in the race as the front-runner.
“Atiku started from zero and has momentum on his side. Given the size of the Undecided vote and its unique and concentration in the 3 Southern geopolitical zones and the North Central Zone, Anap Foundation has concluded that the final outcome is deemed to be too close to call.”
Verdict
Incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari won his reelection bid, defeating his closest rival Atiku Abubakar by over 3 million votes.
Lagos, Sokoto 2019 guber
ANAP foundation predicted a win for Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC and Aminu Tambuwal of the PDP in the March 9 governorship election.
The poll revealed that the governorship election in Lagos will be a two-horse race between Sanwo-Olu of the APC and Jimi Agbaje, candidate of the PDP.
“From the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Governorship elections, the figures put Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu in the lead (but with only 28% of the votes) over Mr. Jimi Agbaje (with 17%).
“Sanwo-Olu’s lead is sizeable but clearly not unassailable because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in the Lagos Central zone, where he is weakest. Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is a huge turnout. A poor turnout favours Mr Sanwo-Olu,” the foundation predicted.
Also, the poll puts Tambuwal in a significant lead, with 41 percent of the votes, over Ahmed Aliyu, candidate of the APC, with 24 percent.
Verdict
Both governors went on to win that election as the foundation predicted.
Ekiti 2022
The foundation conducted a poll prior to the 2022 gubernatorial election in Ekiti. The result of the poll showed a close-run race for the governorship seat between the top two aspirants: Abiodun Ayobami Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Olusegun Adebayo Oni of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
While the survey results showed that youths between the ages of 18-25 years were more inclined to vote for Olabisi Kayode, (they also had the largest proportion of undecided (50%). It also showed that a larger range of youths aged 26-35 and the next age bracket 36-45 are more inclined to vote for Olusegun Adebayo Oni.
When asked who respondents will be voting for before the June 2022 governorship elections in Ekiti, APC and SDP candidates, Abiodun Ayobami Oyebanji and Olusegun Adebayo Oni led the list of candidates, while PDP candidate, Olabisi Kayode came a distant third.
Verdict
Oyebanji of the APC went on to win that election as the survey suggested.
