By Olalekan Adigun
By next year, Nigerians will vote in their seventh consecutive presidential election in the Fourth Republic – the longest stretch in the nation’s electoral history. The 2023 presidential election is significant for various reasons. The first is that, in 16 years, voters will be going into the polls without the incumbent on the ballot. Second, unlike the 2007 round of elections, there are two, nearly-equally matched presidential candidates—Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu—across the nation’s two main political divides standing against each other in what looks like a tantalizing contest in about three decades. Third, the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, has ruled out the possibility of extending his stay in office beyond the expiration of his second term on May 29, 2023; there are high chances of improved voter confidence in the electoral process leading to improved turnout in the elections and reduced election-related violence and intimidation at the polls.
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Due to the significance of the 2023 polls and interests from different quarters, some analysts have predicted the election may end up being “an intensifying regional competition” among political gladiators. While there has been much speculation about the possibility of a third force resurgence breaking Nigeria’s traditional two-party structure, most political pundits agree that the race is still between Atiku and Tinubu, win or lose.
One of the most decisive factors in electoral outcomes is the candidate’s platform. In Nigeria, a candidate for the Office of President must be nominated and sponsored by a registered political party. With about 55 registered parties to contest the 2019 presidential election with only two making significant impacts.
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Some have said it would be a political error to dismiss the chances of former Anambra State Governor, Mr Peter Obi, and former Kano state Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, in the coming election. While one must take cognizance of the energy young people have brought into the Obi’s campaign, for example, we should listen to Professor Ebenezer Obadare, who captures this perfectly when he wrote: “Seen from this vantage point, a candidate like Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State who exited the race (and the PDP) days before the party presidential primaries to pitch his tent with the Labour Party, stood no chance at all. Not only does Obi lack a nationwide political constituency, but he also failed to earn the trust of a political establishment that prefers a candidate of northern extraction, or, alternatively, a candidate who can deliver on the aforementioned northern agenda. Support for Obi would have made perfect sense if, under any circumstance, power had to rotate to the south, but Jonathan’s realpolitik, as previously mentioned, appears to have changed that. Tellingly, Obi left the PDP without endorsing any candidate, and it remains to be seen whether he can tangibly affect the race from the standpoint of a Labour Party that, all told, remains marginal.”
In this piece, we take a look at the issues that will shape the Atiku and Tinubu campaigns ahead of the 2023 elections in Nigeria.
The parties and how they stand
In 2019, both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had fairly equal standings in Nigeria’s political landscape, with the PDP in control of 16 states against the APC’s 19, while the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) has been in control of Anambra since 2006. The ruling APC lost five states—Oyo, Imo, Zamfara, Adamawa, and Bauchi—in the last governorship elections against the PDP’s two—Kwara and Gombe states—in the 2019 general elections. As of today, the APC controls 22 states as against the PDP’s 13, with the APGA maintaining its traditional stronghold in Anambra state. Both parties stand good chances of winning the presidential election, allowing them to make firm political claims.
For the presidential election, PDP won 11,262,978 votes spread across the following states: Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Adamawa, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, FCT, Imo, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, and Taraba. The APC, on its part, won 15,191,847 votes spread across Bauchi, Borno, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Osun, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.
…to be continued